But the signs are everywhere, to those who can see them, that what many see as "the church" will disappear. Tony Dale in The Rabbit and the Elephant goes so far as to say it will disappear within 10 to 15 years. Neil Cole writes of Church 3.0 (church 2.0 being the institution we know now, dating back to Constantine). Some of the signs:
1) the shrinking numbers
2) a growing number of professed Christians not involved in churches as we've known them (documented in George Barna's Revolution)
3) the financials - Reggie McNeal documents in Present Future that 85% of the finances for churches comes from the 55 and over - and that data was from 2003.
The financials are big. Further evidence comes from more and more churches going the "efficiency" routes. A single senior pastor, for instance, for a "franchised" church - churches with multiple locations on a single town or region, with all but one location being a "videocast" of the main. Cheaper (and less personal) than staff for each location. It's gone so far that there is at least one multi-state church - one senior pastor, more than 25 campuses, spread from California to Florida and north to Canada (two locations in Ontario!). It's come to using business like strategies to stay afloat.
And google on "tithe". Doesn't take long to find very biblical arguments that the tithe is strictly an old covenant issue. A long guilt trip of manipulating people into thinking it is commanded is busted, and many are catching on. With no scriptural "mandate" to give 10%, many are following their passions and giving to non-church based missions and ministries, leaving churches with the scraps of many, and even more who don't give anything to churches.
I can see it spiraling down just on the financials. Churches have for years benefited from low interest rates on mortgages, as they've generally been very secure and reliable. But as churches declare bankruptcy and otherwise default on mortgages, rates will rise and qualifying for loans will become harder.
So while I don't agree with Tony Dale's 10 to 15 years prediction, the forms will certainly shift radically.
Yet, don't let that discourage you. Jesus said he will build his church - so much of that which falls away is man's attempt to build church. It pales compared to what Jesus can build.
Seeing the church as a reality instead of an activity [or building or organization] will allow you to celebrate the church however she expresses herself around you -- "John" in So You Don't Want To Go To Church Anymore
If the collapse of an institution or two saddens you, perhaps your church is too small.
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